Wrestling Mailbag: Previewing Iowa-Penn State, the Hawkeye lineup, injuries, parity, more
Cody GoodwinWanted to expand on a thought I wrote briefly after Iowa's 19-18 criteria victory over Wisconsin on Sunday.
The hierarchy of this Division I college wrestling is revealing itself now that we're basically near the end of January. There's a ton of parity this year, which has been fun and will continue to be fun to follow and cover, but the national pecking order, as of right now, looks something like this:
- Penn State
- Iowa
- Everybody else
Penn State, with its four returning national champs, a fifth All-American who's a title contender at heavyweight, and a slew of young stars who are growing each week, is going to be a tough out for anybody, evidenced not only by their 30-8 win over Michigan, but also by their potential to rack up points in a tournament setting, too.
Iowa, with a lineup that includes a three-time national champ, a returning finalist, a two-time All-American at heavyweight, an All-American transfer, and other guys who are going to contend for spots on the podium at their respective weights, is pretty firmly in second. They're stronger than the rest of the field, and there's a path to contend with the Nittany Lions in both a dual meet and a tournament if they bring their best efforts.
Then there's everybody else — teams like Iowa State, Missouri, Cornell, Northwestern, Nebraska, N.C. State, Ohio State, Arizona State, others, too. There will be a heated and entertaining battle for the third- and fourth-place trophies at the NCAA Championships behind the top two teams. It's not a crazy thought that a few could punch above their weights and challenge Penn State and Iowa. We'll learn more over the next couple of months.
These thoughts have been percolating for a while but are now top-of-mind with the Iowa-Penn State dual on the docket this week. The second-ranked Hawkeyes (12-0 overall, 5-0 Big Ten) will wrestle the top-ranked Nittany Lions (10-0, 3-0) at Penn State's Bryce Jordan Center this Friday night. Dual will be live on Big Ten Network.
It will be the Hawkeyes' first chance to see how they stack up, weight-by-weight, with Penn State, and may offer more hints for how Iowa might be able to run them down in March. We'll get into this more below, but there's a path to victory for Iowa on Friday — and it's not an unreasonable or impossible path, either.
This is the fun part about dual meets compared to tournaments. The Iowa-Penn State dual has routinely delivered for the hundreds of thousands of fans that tune in every year. Last year's meeting between the two teams was the most-watch wrestling broadcast in Big Ten Network history.
As such, there are high expectations for Friday's matchup — not only because it's Iowa vs. Penn State, but because it's also a meeting between, pretty definitively, the top two teams in college wrestling this season.
What's better than that?
RELATED:#2 Iowa wrestling team avoids scare, escapes with a 19-18 win over #13 Wisconsin
OK, on to the Wrestling Mailbag. No, Spencer Lee isn't going to bump up and wrestle Roman Bravo-Young this Friday, as fun as that would be for us fans. A few of you guys asked about this. It's an intriguing hypothetical, given that both of them have been insanely dominant. But … no.
Please give me a follow on Twitter and I’ll keep you up to date on all things wrestling in Iowa. Don't forget to tune into the Register's wrestling podcast, In the Room, each week. You can find the latest episodes below.
Thanks for your help here, and for reading.
How can Iowa wrestling beat Penn State?
This is not crazy, but a few amendments:
- I'm not sure RBY wins by TF over Brody Teske at 133, assuming that's the matchup.
- I'm not sure Carter Starocci wins by TF against Nelson Brands , assuming that's the matchup.
- I'm not sure Aaron Brooks scores a major on Abe Assad, assuming that's the matchup.
- I'm not sure Max Dean scores a major on Jacob Warner, assuming that's the matchup.
So based on your scenario, with my amendments, Iowa could go into heavyweight with as big as an 18-12 lead — which would obviously position Iowa for the dual win, barring something crazy and unforeseen. That's also the best-case scenario, but hopefully it opens your guys' eyes to how close this matchup really is on paper.
Maybe Cody's thoughts are more how he feels about Penn State's wrestlers, and if that's the case, fine. But I'm of the belief that Teske, Brands, Assad, and Warner won't go down like that. I also believe that, when he's healthy and locked in, Warner's matchup is closer to the toss-up than it is to a lopsided Penn State lock.
I view the dual more like this (assuming Iowa trots out the full A-Team on Friday):
Iowa is favored at 125 (with bonus points) and 141. Penn State is favored at 133, 174, and 184. The remaining five matches, which are all toss-ups with hundreds of variables, will decide this match.
I think it's fair to say Penn State is also favored at 197, because Dean beat Warner twice last year. I think it's fair to give a slight edge to Iowa at 149, because of experience, and 165, because of their not-so-recent history. I have no earthly idea what'll happen at 157 and 285. Both could go in either direction — which is part of the fun.
Assuming this dual starts at 125 pounds, Iowa should have the early lead. Then … who knows? Five of the next nine matches are toss-ups. A hot start could be all Iowa needs to win, but that's assuming everything goes Iowa's way. While that's probably nice for you guys to read, how often do things actually go according to plan?
All 10 matches are going to be important in a dual meet like this, from Spencer scoring bonus to the results of the toss-ups. But the stretch from 149-165 will be especially important for the Hawkeyes. If they can sweep those matches or at least go 2-1, they'll put themselves in position to win the dual … but again, that's assuming everything else goes according to plan.
Buckle up. Friday is going to be a doozy.
Are Iowa wrestling's heavier weights actually struggling?
Are they? Or are some Iowa fans just a prisoner to the moment?
From 165-197, Iowa's postseason starters are currently:
- 165: Patrick Kennedy, 12-2 overall, 9 bonus-point wins
- 174: Nelson Brands, 4-3 overall
- 184: Abe Assad, 14-2, 7 bonus wins
- 197: Jacob Warner, 11-2, 8 bonus wins
A combined 41-9 record with 25 bonus wins (Nelson has one) is struggling?
Let's take it a step further:
PK's two losses are to Iowa State's David Carr and Wisconsin's Dean Hamiti, both All-Americans. Assad's losses are to Wisconsin's Tyler Dow, which was frustrating, and Iowa State's Marcus Coleman, an All-American. Warner's two losses are to Iowa State's Yonger Bastida, an All-American, and Illinois's Zac Braunagel, an All-American-caliber wrestler. Nelson has wrestled just 13 matches in like 14 months, which is hard.
Assad's loss to Dow is likely the root of this question. It was a frustrating thing to watch, and is largely the reason Iowa's dual with Wisconsin was as close as it was. Some Iowa fans are mad that the Hawkeyes followed their best performance of the year (so far) with a weird dual against a Wisconsin team that's largely been struggling. I get it.
But by and large, Iowa's mid- and upper-weights are doing fine. They're all ranked in the top-16 at their respective weights and are positioning themselves to make some serious noise in the postseason. With the rest of the Big Ten schedule still coming, they'll have plenty of opportunities to prove they belong with the best.
If they capitalize on those opportunities, frustrating questions like this will probably disappear. If they don't win those matches, then we can circle back around and dissect what that means for Iowa's postseason outlook.
But sometimes a bird's eye view is good for the soul.
Other Division I wrestling programs deal with injuries, too.
There are a ton of programs that deal with injuries and rest guys because of those injuries or to save them for bigger matchups or whatever other reason — and Iowa fans don't have to look very far to see those who are dealing with similar issues.
Iowa State lost its starting 125-pounder, Kysen Terukina, to shoulder surgery. His replacement, Corey Cabanban, is still on the mend from torn ligaments in his foot. He should be back by February. Casey Swiderski missed some time with a shoulder issue. Sam Schuyler strained his bicep and missed two duals in late December.
Northern Iowa's Lance Runyon can't seem to stay 100% healthy, which is a bummer because he's really good. He's wrestled just three matches this season. He missed the start of the year because he was still recovering from a shoulder issue, then missed more time after tweaking his knee at the Collegiate Wrestling Duals in New Orleans in December. Hopefully he's healthy for this coming weekend.
Heck, Iowa wrestles Penn State on Friday. The Nittany Lions have wrestled two fewer duals than the Hawkeyes, just 10 total, and yet three of Penn State's starters — RBY, Brooks, Kerkvliet — haven't even hit 10 total matches this season.
Those are just a few that came to mind. There are definitely more if you glance around the country:
- Missouri has only had Keegan O'Toole, a returning NCAA champ, in the lineup twice this month. His teammate, Rocky Elam, ranked No. 1 at 197, has wrestled just five times all year.
- Northwestern's Michael DeAugustino has wrestled just five times this year. Frankie Tal-Shahar has wrestled just seven times.
- Virginia Tech's Bryce Andonian, arguably the most exciting wrestler in the country, has wrestled just four times this season — and three of them were at the Purple Raider Open in Ohio.
We can keep going, but you get the idea: everybody deals with injuries, everybody is strategic about rest and recovery, and every coach does the best they can to manage all of it. It's not just a Hawkeye thing.
Previously:Northern Iowa wrestling team falls to No. 4 Missouri, 24-12, in Big 12 road dual
Will Max Murin and Patrick Kennedy become All-Americans?
From Jeff Budlong via Twitter DM: Mailbag question. Can Max and Patrick make the podium this year? Both are very good, but in their biggest tests of the year, against the guys they will have to beat to do it, little to no offense because of an inability to finish shots on athletic wrestlers.
An understandable worry, given their recent results. On Sunday, Max Murin lost to Austin Gomez, 5-3, and Patrick Kennedy lost to Dean Hamiti, 4-3. Both Gomez and Hamiti are returning All-Americans, a step both Murin and Kennedy will need to take for Iowa to reach its ceiling this season.
Doesn’t help that those two weights happen to be two of the deepest weights in the country this season.
At 149, there’s as many as nine All-Americans and many other contenders. The field is led by Yianni Diakomihalis, Cornell’s three-time NCAA champion … which is a guy that looked untouchable until Gomez beat him earlier this year.
At 165, there’s three national champs, in Keegan O’Toole, Shane Griffith, and David Carr, plus another NCAA finalist in Quincy Monday, and more All-American-level talent, like Cam Amine, Dean Hamiti, Carson Kharchla, Peyton Hall, and more.
Both Murin and Kennedy can finish on the podium at those weights. Nothing about their performances on Sunday changed my mind. I don’t think it’s the worst thing in the world that they lost those matches, to be honest. They know now what they need to work on moving forward to win those matches.
One of the issues on Sunday was finishing shots. Murin was in deep on a shot in the second period, but Gomez applied heavy-enough hips and kept in well-enough position to stymie Murin’s efforts. Gomez is a legit title contender at 149, so Murin getting a feel for how he moves and operates will serve him well moving forward.
Kennedy, I thought, wrestled well enough to beat Hamiti from neutral, which is hard to do. He stayed in good position, dictated the pace, and created opportunities, but against a funky guy like Hamiti, it’s not enough to just create. You have to finish. Kennedy did not — at least not this time.
I’m not sure I consider Hamiti a contender the same way I view Gomez. He’s good, and he’ll be in the bloodround and possibly semifinals with the right draw, and in the same way it was good for Murin to feel Gomez, it was also good for Kennedy to feel Hamiti, who’s just different than others at the weight.
Again, firmly believe both guys can be on the podium in March. They wrestled fine, even in losing efforts, on Sunday. But what they do with the lessons they learned from those matches will determine a lot.
RELATED:Brody Teske returns to starting lineup as Iowa wrestlers thump Nebraska 34-6
Parity in Division I college wrestling this season
I’ll give you two.
157 pounds: There are a lot of guys at this weight who can win it — Peyton Robb, Jared Franek, Austin O’Connor, Josh Humphreys, Bryce Andonian, Ed Scott, Kendall Coleman, Jarrett Jacques, on and on. Robb has built the best résumé thus far, but all of these guys and many more are dangerous, and on any given day, can make a run and beat everybody else.
This is a weight that can be had, which is why Cobe Siebrecht’s continued emergence at this weight is an encouraging sign for Iowa.
197 pounds: The thought process here is similar to 157, except a lot of these guys are credentialed. Rocky Elam, Nino Bonaccorsi, Michael Beard, Max Dean, Yonger Bastida, Jacob Warner, Bernie Truax, Tanner Sloan, Ethan Laid, on and on.
When the returning national champ, Dean, already has two losses and the top-ranked guy, Elam, has wrestled just five times, anything can happen, both now and in March. You could take the top-15 guys here, arrange them in any order, say those are the All-Americans, and I’m not sure anybody would argue much.
I think there’s a case for 141, too. Real Woods and Andrew Alirez have made cases as the top two guys, but behind them, it’s pretty open, with Cole Matthews, Ryan Jack, Beau Bartlett, Brock Hardy, Cael Happel, Allan Hart, Danny Pucino, on and on the list goes. Pretty fun — and important — weight when you look at it nationally.
RELATED:Why Cobe Siebrecht has more confidence this year and what it means for Iowa wrestling
Who will be the next Division I program to add women's wrestling?
No talk that I’ve heard of, but that doesn’t mean conversations aren’t being had behind closed doors, both at Iowa State and at other schools around the country.
But a major reason why other Division I Power 5 programs haven’t jumped on the women’s wrestling train yet is because athletic directors are hesitant.
It made a lot of sense for Iowa to pull the trigger on women’s wrestling. There’s the history, for one, but they’d also had some pre-pandemic conversations about adding it, and then a Title IX lawsuit basically fast-tracked the process.
Not sure that many other Division I Power 5 schools have had those same conversations, at least in as much depth as Iowa had previously. Most athletic directors want to see what it looks like first. They want to see what Iowa’s first team(s) look like, how they compete, what kind of support they get, all that.
Which is fair! One reason why a lot of NAIA, smaller NCAA schools, and even junior colleges added women’s wrestling is to help with enrollment numbers. Only a handful of programs have really poured in the time and resources needed to make their programs really, really good.
But by waiting, other Division I Power 5 programs are allowing Iowa to get a three- or four-step jumpstart in building their program.
The Hawkeye women have been insanely impressive in limited opportunities during this redshirt season, with sensational performances at both the Missouri Valley Open and Soldier Salute. Next year, they’ll be able to compete against the other NCAA powers and truly contend for championships — which they’ll do immediately.
It’s not a shoo-in that Iowa will be runaway winners right away, but all the early indications suggest that they’ll win big more often than not. That’ll help them attract more high-end recruits, which will help them win more … and other schools that wait to pull the trigger will be stuck looking up at them for a while.
Despite not a ton of whispers or movement from the likes of Iowa State and Northern Iowa, the state of Iowa, as a whole, has done a great job opening opportunities for women’s wrestlers at the collegiate level. Upper Iowa, a Division II program, recently announced it’s adding women's wrestling, giving the state 20 total women’s college wrestling programs across the NCAA, NAIA, and junior college levels.
That’s incredible, giving that there’s roughly 150 women’s college programs nationwide across all levels. It would be cool if Iowa State was next. I don’t see it, personally, but we can hope.
RELATED:‘The sky is the limit’: Meet Southeast Polk’s Skylar Slade, one of Iowa’s top girl wrestlers
Should middle-schoolers wrestle in high school varsity lineups?
I’m game, but I’m not sure it’s as easy as just opening the door and letting them wrestle with the varsity and junior varsity teams. There needs to be a serious conversation because there’s a lot of good that can come of this.
The primary reason to consider it is it would help with numbers. At many small schools, and even a handful of large ones, numbers are dwindling, so allowing coaches access to the middle schools might help them fill holes in the varsity lineup — especially at some of the smallest weights.
Consider the New London-WACO-Highland-Pekin quadrangular from last week. Four teams means six total duals, which means, in theory, 84 total matches. There were only 25 contested matches, with 39 forfeits and 20 double forfeits. Adding middle-schoolers to the mix could’ve helped that, even if only a little.
Now, middle school is where a lot of kids are first introduced to wrestling, especially at smaller schools, so not every 106- or 113-pound kid is going to be ready to wrestle varsity. That’s fine. Those kids can occasionally practice with the high-school program to help with their development if they want, or stay in the middle school program if they feel that’s their best option. A situation like this requires that kind of flexibility.
Additionally, with the rise of Iowa’s club teams and their success at big-time national youth events, I think some middle-schoolers can jump into a varsity lineup at certain weights and contribute immediately and find success. That’s not the only reason you do this, but the thought of a 5- or 6-time state champ is fun.
On top of that, this could open a can of worms regarding parents and pressure and kids switching schools and all the negatives that youth sports sometimes reveals about society. Might make a coach’s job harder. Will kids burn out? These are all components of this thing, too.
But I think it’s worth considering — for both boys and girls — and it sounds like coaches are already have preliminary conversations about it, which is cool.
HS WRESTLING:Iowa’s top high school wrestling teams clash at Urbandale's Ed Winger
This week, I'm grateful for YouTube TV for recording (at my request) all the big-time wrestling events that I wasn't able to watch live this weekend. Spent much of my Sunday night and Monday rewatching a lot of the action. It's the simple things sometimes.
Cody Goodwin covers wrestling and high school sports for the Des Moines Register. Follow him on Twitter at@codygoodwin.