CYCLONE INSIDER

Peterson's Iowa State vs. Iowa prediction: Turnover margin will determine winner of Cy-Hawk

Randy Peterson
Des Moines Register

AMES, Ia. — Mike Rose was nearly speechless when learning last Monday the most confounding statistic associated with Cy-Hawk football the past four season.

No turnovers?

No misprint.

That must change during Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. ABC game among Top 12 opponents at Jack Trice Stadium. For the Cyclones to win the most anticipated Cy-Hawk game, it must create a turnover.

History says so.

“That’s a mind-boggling stat,” Rose said Tuesday. “The turnover margin is what wins games for you.”

Mindboggling is the Cyclones’ most recent four victories in this series have been one-possession games. In three of those four wins, including a three-overtime thriller in 2011, Iowa State forced at least one turnover. The other, in 2007, the Cyclones forced two fumbles, yet didn’t recover.

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Iowa State linebacker Mike Rose says the "mindboggling" streak in which the Cyclones haven't forced an Iowa turnover must end on Saturday.

"They make teams beat themselves, sometimes,” Rose continued. “That’s something they’re really good at, and that’s what collegiate football is — teams beating themselves.”

Iowa State has had opportunities in recent Cy-Hawk games. No one knows that better, than their pre-season All-American outside linebacker.

“In 2019, I dropped one,” said Rose, who led the nation’s linebackers with five interceptions in 2020. “There’s been opportunities. That’s what hurts.”

There have been 293 Iowa offensive plays since Iowa State forced a turnover. Between losing a fourth-quarter fumble in 2015, to present, the Hawkeyes have been turnover-free.

This is especially significant during a rivalry in which one play can make the difference. The past three Cy vs. Hawks have been decided by 10 points or fewer, so in this instance, Iowa State had better be doing some successful ball-hawking.

“My experiences with Iowa go back to 1988,” said defensive coordinator Jon Heacock, referring to his assistant coaching days at Michigan. “They took care of the football then, and they’re still taking care of the football.”

Hawkeye quarterback Spencer Petras threw five interceptions in 2020. Force him out of his rhythm, and an interception might follow. Iowa State picked off two passes against Northern Iowa.

Iowa, of course, is not handing out turnovers like families distribute trick-or-treat candy.

After a year off, the Cy-Hawk resumes on Saturday -- at 3:30 p.m., at Jack Trice Stadium

“It’s a great stat,” Cyclones coach Matt Campbell said of the turnover drought. “To be honest, it’s a telling stat of how they win.”

That’s why Rose and some of his defensive leader buddies have planted the need to get turnover seed. Whether it’s been just a passing reminder during practice, or a part of someone's  pep talk, it will be on the minds of the players.

“We’ll keep mentioning it,” he said during mid-week. “Getting turnovers might be huge.”

Iowa State wins if …

First and foremost, the Cyclones must (and will) finally force a Hawkeye turnover. That’s a start, but winning this game for the first time since 2014 needs more than that. All-American Breece Hall needs more than the 69 yards he rushed for against Northern Iowa, a game in which he said, “I can’t play any worse.” That will only happen if the offensive line handles Iowa crowding the line of scrimmage with as many defenders as it can spare. If that’s the route Phil Parker’s defense takes, then it will be similar to how the Panthers stopped last season’s 1,572-yard rusher. Having tight end Charlie Kolar back, after missing the UNI game, will be huge, not only because the 6-foot-6 Super Senior is a red zone mismatch, but also because of his veteran presence. And oh by the way, turnovers or no turnovers, Heacock’s defense must be on its A-game again. Iowa crushed a very good defense last week in Indiana. 

Iowa wins if …

With both teams having very good defense, Saturday’s outcome could come down to a special teams play. And since it’ll likely be a close and lower-scoring game, Tyler Goodson needs a good showing against an Iowa State defense that’s been very good slowing rushers. Goodson has averaged 109.6 yards during the Hawkeyes’ seven-game winning streak. He’s got eight rushing touchdowns in his last seven games. He’ll be important, if quarterback Spencer Petras isn’t able to pass well against a veteran secondary that intercepted two Northern Iowa passes in Week 1. Defensively, slowing Hall will be a focus. He rushed for 1,572 yards last season and will be motivated after rushing for just 69 yards in the opener. He’s also a nifty receiver, something Hawkeye linebackers must watch.

No. 12 IOWA (1-0) AT No. 10 IOWA STATE (1-0)

Time, TV, Tipico SportsBook line: 3:30 p.m., ABC, Iowa State by 4 ½ points.

Prediction: Iowa State 17, Iowa 14 … In honor of the historical aspects surrounding this game, I’m going back to the same score and winner of the 2001 game, also at Jack Trice Stadium. Whoever wins Saturday, their College Football Playoff resume will benefit.

Saturday’s other Big 12 games

All times CT, lines from Tipico SportBook

Cal (0-1) at TCU (1-0)

Time, TV:  2:30 p.m., ESPNU, TCU by 10 ½ points.

Prediction: There’s no reason to believe the Big 12 can’t go 2-0 against the Pac-12, after Kansas State’s 24-7 win against Stanford a week ago. Quarterback Max Duggan, the former Lewis Central star, gets hot early. TCU 33, Cal 20.

Tulsa (0-1) at No. 23 Oklahoma State (1-0)

Time, TV: 11 a.m., FS1, Oklahoma State by 12 ½ points.

Prediction: If you’re looking for a game that’s loaded with highlight-reel plays, this isn’t for you. Neither team looked good in openers. Let’s presume the Cowboys have gotten better since last week’s 23-16 win against Missouri State. Oklahoma State 33, Tulsa 17.

Long Island (0-1) at West Virginia (0-1)

Time, TV: 4 p.m., ESPN+, no line

Prediction: West Virginia running back Leddie Brown could run for 200 yards in this game. He’s that good, and the defense he’ll be running against isn’t so good. West Virginia 42, Long Island 10

Western Carolina (0-1) at No. 4 Oklahoma (1-0)

Time, TV: 6 p.m., PPV, no line

Prediction: Another Big 12 blowout in which first-half stars might become second-half spectators. The Sooners will be better than last week’s closer-than-anticipated win against Tulane. Much better. Oklahoma 48, Western Carolina 3.

Stephen F. Austin (1-0) at Texas Tech (1-0)

Time, TV: 6 p.m., ESPN+, no line

Prediction: This might be closer than you’d expect. SFA isn’t a bad team, and certainly will be looking to play well in the state of Texas. National picks have the Red Raiders winning big. I’m leaning toward something like Texas Tech 34, SFA 24.

Texas Southern (0-1) at Baylor (1-0)

Time, TV: 6 p.m., ESPN+, no line

Prediction: Baylor has been better, but it’s certainly good enough to handily win this one. Baylor 42, Texas Southern 10.

No. 15 Texas (1-0) at Arkansas (1-0)

Time, TV: 6 p.m., ESPN, Texas by 6 ½ points

Prediction: The Longhorns’ victory against No. 23 Louisiana last week was the perfect prelude to this game. Besides Cy-Hawk, this could be the Big 12’s closest battle. A last-possession win? Texas 37, Arkansas 30.

Southern Illinois (1-0) vs. Kansas State (1-0)

Time, TV: 6 p.m., ESPN+, no line

Prediction: Does anyone sense an upset? If Kansas State can’t slow QB Nic Baker (460 passing yards against Southeast Missouri State last week), then it’s a long day for the Wildcats. The edge, though, goes to Kansas State after its opening-season win against Stanford. Kansas State 35, Southern Illinois 24.

Iowa State columnist Randy Peterson has been writing for the Des Moines Register for parts of six decades. Reach him at rpeterson@dmreg.com, 515-284-8132, and on Twitter at @RandyPete.